When the democratic uprising in Tunisia successfully overthrew the old regime, the world reacted surprise. Democracy lower in the Arab world?
After the overthrow of the 30-year regime of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, in the heart of the Middle East, surprisingly replaced by certainty. Middle East woke up and began to enter into the globalized world of the twenty-first century. Until now, the region (except Israel and Turkey) did not pay much attention to the landmark the process of modernization throughout the world.
really an awakening of Arab and wider Islamic world will prevail, or it will only lead to changes at the top of authoritarian regimes, whether it will lead to a stable order, or long-term chaos and radicalization, remains unclear. Nevertheless, One thing is clear: the era when this vast region was asleep, while others upgraded already ended.
revolt of the masses, of course, continue. Virtually no country in the region will not be able to get away from him, although it remains unclear when and where will the next eruption. Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia - All are candidates, the latter of which is probably the greatest difficulties.
Israel should also prepare for a landmark changes in the region and try to reach a peace settlement with the Palestinians and Syria as soon as possible. Nevertheless, there is little evidence that government Israel has the vision needed for such an enterprise.
problems are virtually identical everywhere (except Israel and Turkey): political pressure, underdevelopment and poverty (except for small oil states), low educational attainment, high unemployment and a huge Population pressure due to the very young and rapidly growing population.
these problems from year to year listed in the reports of UN programs development. Moreover, the situation was aggravated by the incompetence of authoritarian regimes in the region who were not able to provide our young people any perspectives on the other side of repression. Thus, the ignition of the powder keg was only a matter of time.
wick became the new information Technology: Internet and satellite television, such as Al-Jazeera. In fact, the historical irony is that it is not hard America's strength - which, for example, is used in the war in Iraq - has contributed to this democratic revolution, and its soft power - Twitter and Facebook - which are inimical spoke George W. Bush and his neoconservative advisers. Silicon Valley, apparently has a higher efficiency than the Pentagon.
These digital Instruments of the United States have become tools for trans-arabskogo/iranskogo youth uprising for freedom and democracy. And although many things in the Middle East not enough, there is no shortage of young people who have no hope for the future, and this number will continue to grow in coming years.
In fact, regardless of the similarity of events in Tahrir Square in Cairo to May 1968 in Paris and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it would be premature to declare a victory of freedom. It really will depend largely on the reaction of the West, because at stake is not just a replacement of tyrants, but also a profound transformation and modernization of society and the economy. This is a staggering task.
Furthermore, compared with Eastern Europe in 1989, the Middle East in 2011, no any external structure stabilization, such as NATO and the European Union, which could have an impact on internal reforms, suggesting membership perspective. Efforts for this large-scale transformation must come from those companies, and in all likelihood, this is too much.
Conversion Eastern Europe after 1989, took much longer and was much more expensive than originally anticipated. During this transformation, many people failed, and the organizers of the Democratic Revolution were not necessarily those who could promote democratic and economic development. Also have experience of the Ukrainian "Orange Revolution" in 2004, which collapsed a few years later, due to incompetence and corruption of its leaders.
Together, these constraints and the analogy suggests that the West, especially Europe, must focus on long-term support for democratic and economic development of the country's revival in the Middle East, as well as on partnerships with all the forces which support democratization and modernization of these countries. The West can no longer continue its usual "realpolitik".
These tasks require generosity, both financial and other kind (to travel, for example, was crucial in consolidating the democratic aspirations of Eastern Europeans after 1989) and it requires decades rather than years, and perseverance. In other words, success will be expensive - very expensive - it would be far from popular in the current economic decline. But democracy, which is not transferred to the regular lunch - a democracy, which is doomed to failure.
Economic assistance, opening markets for EU and U.S. strategic energy projects, the constitutional and legal advice, as well as cooperation between universities - those resources which should give the West, if he wants to contribute to the success of the democratic awakening in the Middle East.
If this awakening tolerate collapse, the result will be a radicalization of the region. There can be no return to the status quo. Genie out of the bottle.
Joschka Fischer - Foreign Minister Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998 to 2005. For nearly 20 years was the leader of Germany's Green Party.
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